Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
